(Issued at 3:14 p.m. Apr 1st, 2026) — From tonight through Thursday morning: Small temperature changes will make a big difference. Just a couple degrees warmer or colder near the ground will decide if we get rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow. What matters most is: How warm the air is above the ground and how cold it is at the surface. Those factors will decide if temperatures stay above freezing or drop to 32° or colder. The best chance for freezing rain is in parts of southwest Minnesota, where the line between sleet and freezing rain is very thin. The worst conditions look to be late tonight into Thursday morning, which could impact the morning drive. Right now, sleet is expected to be more common than freezing rain, with ½ inch to 1 inch of sleet possible in some areas.

Thursday afternoon: Most of the precipitation shifts northeast. Temperatures warm into the 30s near and north of I‑90, and into the 40s south of I‑90.

Thursday night into Friday morning: A few thunderstorms are possible in northwest Iowa and nearby areas. Severe weather is not expected, but small hail could happen. Outside of the storms, temperatures near the surface will again affect what falls on Friday. Right now, it looks like more rain, sleet, or freezing rain, rather than snow. Some areas could see heavier bursts on Friday morning.

Friday afternoon and evening: Drier air moves in, and precipitation ends for most places near and east of I‑29. The system wraps up Friday night into Saturday with strong northwest winds. Scattered snow showers are possible, and wind gusts could reach 35 to 45 mph. If a snow shower lines up just right, visibility could drop quickly for a short time. Computer guidance suggests a higher chance for snow squalls on Saturday.

.KEY MESSAGES…

– Wintry precipitation expected north of I-90 tonight into Thursday. Close attention needs to be paid to areas in southwest MN where there is a small threat for a quarter to a third of an inch of freezing rain if sleet is not as prevalent.

– Much needed rainfall will move into the area tonight and continue into Thursday morning. Much of the area will see a half an inch to an inch of rain/total liquid precipitation.

– Isolated thunderstorm potential very late Thursday night into Friday morning in northwest IA and nearby locations. Severe weather unlikely but some dime sized hail would be possible.

– Friday is a tricky day with the potential for freezing rain and sleet. The better chances for snow should be mostly northwest of the area. Enough of an icing threat that some minor to moderate impacts will be possible. Better chances from the morning into early afternoon.

– Saturday will bring scattered snow showers with the potential for wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph within these showers. This would cause locally rapid drops in visibility.